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Topic: Update in Avian Flu 對禽流感的新看法 (Read 1994 times) |
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HF_Cheung
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Update in Avian Flu 對禽流感的新看法
« on: Feb 13th, 2006, 6:07pm » |
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I like to review the present situation of H5N1 Avian Flu.
A. Facts:
1. Up to the latest moment, there were 2 Magpie Robins, 1 Crested Myna, 1 Common Magpie, 1 Little Egret, 1 Japanese White-eye, and 2 chicken have the H5N1 virus found on them in HK.
2. The situation in China mainland has not improved. there were continuous outbreak in chicken farm and occasional human infections.
3. In the last few days, H5N1 outbreak in chicken farm were report in Nigeria, and the H5N1 virus were found in dead Goose in several European countries.
B. Comments:
1. In spite of the high number of dead birds collected in HK every day, the number of H5N1 case in wild bird have not risen further. This may be a good sign. The "Chinese New Year" effect seems to be behind us now.
2. Although the H5N1 cases in New Territories can be linked to the two dead chicken, the case of the Crested Myna and Japanese White-eye is not "solved". I still suspected that there is a hidden source in the urban area. The bird market is a prime suspect, because of the following reasons. First, the level of surveillance is probably not sufficient to eliminate all possible carriers of H5N1. Second, wild birds have very close contact with caged birds in the bird market. Because of the way that caged birds are fed, wild birds do find the bird market a very convenient place to find food, especially in the very difficult month of February.
3. This year, it seems there are two waves of Avian Flu attack. The first is in November, and the second wave is in late January / early February. Studies by HKU have shown that February is the month that shrubland birds would have the most difficulties finding food. This is probably also true for farmland birds.
4. The possible inflection of many resident birds by the H5N1 virus is a new thing in science, and this knowledge can be developed into a useful early-warning system against attack by the virus. Here, I am not saying that wildbirds are the major carriers, but if there is a source nearby, they will also get inflected. This is already good enough for them to be an useful indicator.
5. The world outbreak of H5N1 is now very clear. There are now more evidences suggesting that wild birds do play some important role. I am talking about genetic studies that have suggested a clear sequence of transmission of this virus. With more countries involved in H5N1, the end of the tunnel is probably not very far away.
6. During this last few months, I realised that our understanding of migrating birds and also resident birds is not sufficient. I hope to see more studies in this area in the future. For example, do we know exactly where the Great Cormorants In HK go in Summer? How about the migrating Japanese White-eyes? Where do they spend the summer time?
HF Cheung
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| « Last Edit: Feb 25th, 2006, 9:14pm by Webcreeper » |
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Webcreeper
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Re: Update in Avian Flu 對禽流感的最新看法
« Reply #1 on: Feb 13th, 2006, 9:19pm » |
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對目前H5N1禽流感情況的檢討
A. 事實：
1. 直到目前為止，本港已發現有兩只鵲鴝、一只八哥、一只喜鵲、一只小白鷺、 一只相思和兩只雞帶H5N1病毒。
2. 中國大陸方面的情況沒有改善，養雞場仍然不斷爆發禽流感，間中也有人類受 感染。
3. 在過去的數日內，尼日利亞的養雞場爆發H5N1禽流感，多個歐洲國家也在死去 的鵝身上發現H5N1病毒。
B. 意見：
1. 雖然本港每日都收集到大量死鳥，但是其中H5N1的個案沒有上升，這可能是好 現象，「農曆新年效應」以乎已告一段落。
2. 雖然在新界發現的H5N1個案可能和兩只死雞有關，但是死去的八哥和相思仍未 找到病源。我仍懷疑市區內隱藏著一個病毒源頭，而以雀鳥市場的嫌疑最大，原因 是：第一，目前的監察方法相信未能完全排除帶H5N1病毒的鳥。第二，野鳥和雀鳥 市場的籠鳥有非常密切的接觸，目前餵飼籠鳥的方法，讓野鳥很容易地分享該處的 鳥食，野鳥在二月覓食比較因難，會令問題更加嚴重。
3. 最近發生的禽流感似乎分為兩波，第一波在十一月，第二波在一月底二月初。 香港大學做的研究顯示，對在灌叢生活的雀鳥來說，二月是覓食最因難的時間，這 現象對在農地生活的雀鳥也可能適用。
4. H5N1病毒可能會感染大量留鳥，是科學上的新發現，或許可以發展成一套有用 的禽流感早期預警機制。我的意思並不是說野鳥是主要的病毒載體，而是如果附近 有病毒源頭，野鳥便會受到感染，可以用來作為一個有用的預警指標。
5. H5N1在世界各地爆發，現在已經十分明顯。目前亦已有更多的證據，顯示野鳥確實 對禽流感起著相當的作用－對於病毒傳播順序，基因研究已經提出了一個清楚的推 斷。隨著H5N1在愈來愈多的國家出現，相信不久便會真相大白。
6. 在過去數月，我發覺我們對本地候鳥和留鳥的認識並不足夠，希望日後有更多 這方面的研究，例如：在香港越冬的鸕鶿夏天去了甚麼地方？遷徙的相思在何處渡 過夏季？
張浩輝
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Jimmy_choi
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Re: Update in Avian Flu 對禽流感的最新看法
« Reply #2 on: Feb 14th, 2006, 1:20pm » |
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That's the main reason why you have to do bird-banding work !! 
Perhaps you may need more effort if you want to answer where the cormorants go in summer... But of course money is always a problem. You may be able to get some funding from the government, telling that it's important to find out where these birds go, and thus where viruses may spread or come from...
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Bob Thompson
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Re: Update in Avian Flu 對禽流感的最新看法
« Reply #3 on: Feb 14th, 2006, 1:57pm » |
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I would like to back Jimmy Choi in his suggestion. I believe that now is the time for the HKBWS to approach the relevant Government Departments for funding into research to the migratory routes of some of Hong Kong's common birds. In particular tracking/banding should start during the winter period before the birds leave Hong Kong. otherwise we will have to wait another year.
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HF_Cheung
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Re: Update in Avian Flu 對禽流感的最新看法
« Reply #4 on: Feb 14th, 2006, 8:15pm » |
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Thanks, I have this in mind. Satellite tracking is the way to do. Ringing/banding would not be very effective at all. For example, there were thousands of Cormorants ringed at Qinghai Lake, but only several have been recovered. Catching thousands of Cormorants would be a very difficult task. Catching about 10 is much more realistic. Still that need some thinking to work out the details.
HF Cheung
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Webcreeper
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Re: Update in Avian Flu 對禽流感的最新看法
« Reply #5 on: Feb 14th, 2006, 10:27pm » |
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So you need to find a neutral bouyancy satellite tracking transmitter that is also waterproof up to 30m(?) meters.
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Webcreeper
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Re: Update in Avian Flu 對禽流感的最新看法
« Reply #7 on: Feb 15th, 2006, 12:19pm » |
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Thanks Bob! So the transmitters are not difficult to find after all. 
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Bob Thompson
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Re: Update in Avian Flu 對禽流感的最新看法
« Reply #8 on: Feb 15th, 2006, 1:44pm » |
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Apparently researchers are able to determine the around of time that cormorants are diving because the satellite signal drops out - all very interesting
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Jimmy_choi
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Re: Update in Avian Flu 對禽流感的最新看法
« Reply #9 on: Feb 16th, 2006, 12:41pm » |
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I talked to my supervisor this morning about the idea of satellite tracking in HK. You may be interested to hear some of his comments Mr Cheung.
1) Satellite tracking is very expensive, at least by mainland standard, thus you may need to do more work in getting financial support
2) Need to do it on relatively large bird, small waterbirds will be affected by the heavy battery.
3) Perhaps if you will get more support if the subject species is an endangered species, or popular among public.
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Bob Thompson
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Re: Update in Avian Flu 對禽流感的新看法
« Reply #10 on: Mar 8th, 2006, 6:37am » |
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On the AFCD website http://www.afcd.gov.hk/news/news_e.htm they have a pdf showing the location and type of bird that has been infected with H5N1 in Hong Kong.
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Andrew
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Re: Update in Avian Flu 對禽流感的新看法
« Reply #11 on: Mar 8th, 2006, 7:54am » |
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Every picture tells a story. 13 of the 16 records are in or around towns / on HK Island - nothing from Deep Bay or even close by.
The other article posted is entitled The management of Brids (sic)!!
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Fred
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Re: Update in Avian Flu 對禽流感的新看法
« Reply #12 on: Mar 11th, 2006, 12:14am » |
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Push Push 
Now there is a golden chance to give the government a kick to re-open Mai Po.
Please see the report by Lew of WWF on the other thread and take immediate actions now.
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martin
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Re: Update in Avian Flu 對禽流感的新看法
« Reply #13 on: Mar 16th, 2006, 1:10pm » |
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Quote:| genetic studies that have suggested a clear sequence of transmission of this virus. |
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nothing clear at all that I've seen re transmission between and by wild birds.
- just assertions from virologists, not ornithologists
Witness the six ducks at Poyang, with - remarkably - two genotypes of H5N1. Why no H5N1 to places Poyang birds actually known to go? (Robert Webster, say, asserting they carried virus to Qinghai: just rubbish.)
And just because virus in Europe is much as at Qinghai, does not mean wild birds were behind transport. Come on, this is birders' forum - surely knowledge of actual not just theoretical wild birds is important here.
radio-tracking dead birds not too useful.
and really, radio-tracking not a wise use of resources, which would instead be better placed in understanding smuggling etc - which many authorities keen to ignore.
virologists are not all-knowing gods.
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